![]() ![]() He has every reason to want to prove that he’s doing better now without them. It also probably bothers him that many of the Washington fans seem to blame him for leaving the team, and yet they simultaneously deride him as overrated. He’s probably upset that the organization that drafted him didn’t offer him a better contract when he was a free agent, and he’s surely upset that they won a World Series without him. It makes a lot of sense that Bryce Harper would bring his A-game against the Nationals. In other words, people are more likely to believe something when it feels like it should be true. Because those home runs are so handily available in our memories, they feel like a far more frequent event than they actually have been. On the other hand, I can easily remember numerous times that Bryce Harper has homered against Washington. But I can’t bring to mind any single specific one of those strikeouts. That’s good for a 29.5% strikeout rate, which is pretty putrid. a cognitive heuristic through which the frequency or probability of an event is judged by the number of instances of it that can readily be brought to mind.īryce Harper has struck out 43 times against the Nationals. It’s not hard to see why those six games could have a stronger effect on one’s opinion than the 29 games that came before them. The recency effect is a cognitive bias in which those that came last are remembered more clearly.īryce Harper has been excellent against the Nationals so far this season. It’s very easy to understand how Phillies fans might use this incredible first game as an anchor upon which to base their opinions. The home run was an incredible 458-foot blast, and it put the Phillies up 8-2. In Bryce Harper’s first ever game against the Washington Nationals (April 2, 2019) he went 3 for 5 with a double and a home run. The anchoring effect is a cognitive bias that describes the common human tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the “anchor”) when making decisions. So why is it that Phillies fans continue to believe Bryce Harper will tear the cover off the ball against his former team? Well, we can look to psychology for the answer. His overall clutch score since 2019 is +0.89, but his clutch score against the Nats is -0.30. According to FanGraphs, he hasn’t been “clutch” at all against the Nationals. On a similar note, has Bryce Harper come up particularly “clutch” against Washington? Since joining the Phillies, Harper is averaging 4.32 WPA per 162 games, but against the Nationals he’s averaging just 2.03 WPA per 162 games. Harper’s win probability added against the Nationals is lower than you would expect. Has Bryce Harper been instrumental in a lot of Phillies wins against the Nationals? Maybe it’s not just about his overall production, but the timing of his production. Since 2019, Harper has averaged a home run every 21.43 PA against the Nationals, and he’s averaged a home run every 19.82 PA against all other teams. So 266 games into Harper’s Phillies career, why is anyone still entertaining the narrative that he’s a Nationals killer? Is it because Bryce Harper hits a lot of home runs against the Nationals? Home runs are cool! This shows, quite definitively, that Bryce Harper has been almost the exact same hitter against the Nationals as he has been against everyone else. Against all other opponents in that same time period, he’s hitting. 374 wOBA in 35 games against the Nationals. Since the start of the 2019 season, Bryce Harper has hit. The truth is, Harper’s offense has been resoundingly typical against his old squad. I’ll get to the answer quickly – it’s no. But is this based in any fact? Since he joined the Phillies, has Bryce Harper hit especially well against the Washington Nationals? Oftentimes, the conversation is centered around whether or not Harper will hit better than usual in the upcoming series because his opponent is the Nats. Whenever the Phillies play the Nationals, you’re bound to hear talk about Bryce Harper facing his former team. ![]()
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